A new Nuvama–CEEW report projects that India’s green hydrogen demand will double by 2030 as accelerating cost declines improve its commercial viability. Undoubtedly, India’s green hydrogen market is poised for rapid expansion this decade as costs decline and policy support scales up. Ans as per the new report, hydrogen demand is expected to nearly double to about 12 million tonnes per annum by 2030, led by fertilisers, refining and petrochemicals.
Demand outlook
By 2030, fertilisers are projected to account for roughly 51% of India’s hydrogen demand, with refining contributing 38% and petrochemicals about 11%. New demand from steel, long-haul transport, shipping and power generation is expected to build beyond 2030 as green hydrogen becomes more affordable and infrastructure matures.
Economics of green hydrogen and ammonia
Green hydrogen in India currently costs about USD 3.5–4 per kg, compared with roughly USD 2.2 per kg for grey hydrogen, constraining large-scale switching today. Policy measures and technology gains could reduce green hydrogen costs to around USD 1.6 per kg by 2030, supported by waivers on grid charges, lower renewable tariffs and steep declines in electrolyser prices.
Green ammonia is approaching commercial viability. Recent tenders indicate green ammonia prices in the USD 594–774 per tonne range, with a weighted average near USD 637 per tonne, close to the five-year weighted average landed cost of imported grey ammonia at about USD 676 per tonne. This cost convergence suggests green ammonia could replace nearly one-third of India’s ammonia imports over the medium term.
Electrolyser and localisation advantage
Electrolyser stacks make up around 40% of green hydrogen production costs, and their prices could fall by as much as 75% through technology upgrades, material optimisation and domestic manufacturing. Up to 82–88% of the electrolyser supply chain can potentially be localised in India, strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities and further reducing costs.
Policy tailwinds and corporate beneficiaries
India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission, with a central outlay of roughly USD 2.5 billion and additional state incentives estimated at nearly USD 61 billion, is expected to be a key accelerator of adoption. As demand and policy support scale, companies such as Reliance Industries and Waaree are positioned to be among the early corporate beneficiaries of India’s green hydrogen push.
