Decoupling economic prosperity from carbon emissions is no longer theoretical, but a global reality, according to a new analysis.
The historical link between wealth creation and fossil fuel combustion is fundamentally broken across most global economies. This marks a profound shift in global development patterns away from rising carbon emissions.
The study, released by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), provides a comprehensive update on the global decoupling trend a decade after the Paris Agreement. Titled 10 Years Post-Paris: How emissions decoupling has progressed globally, the report analyzes the period from 2015 to 2023, tracking progress across 113 countries. These nations collectively represent over 97% of global GDP.
Decoupling becomes the global norm:
The study’s central finding confirms the success of the Paris Agreement in accelerating climate action:
Overall Decoupling: Economies responsible for 92% of global GDP have achieved decoupling, either relatively or absolutely, since the Paris Agreement.
This figure represents a sharp acceleration from the decade before 2015, when approximately 77% of global GDP was decoupling.
Decoupling is defined as a country’s economy (GDP) expanding faster than its environmental pressure, which in this case is CO2 emissions.
The ECIU identifies two critical types of decoupling observed across the globe:
Absolute Decoupling: This is the most successful outcome, where a country’s emissions are actively declining while its economy continues to grow. This results in real-world carbon reduction.
Relative Decoupling: Emissions are still increasing, but at a rate significantly slower than the rate of economic growth, indicating a major reduction in the economy’s carbon intensity.
Absolute decoupling is accelerating:
The most significant progress is seen in the countries acbeforeprior to the Paris Agreement.
Developed Nation Leaders: Major economies like the United States and the European Union have demonstrated strong, consistent absolute decoupling. The UK, Norway, and Switzerland recorded some of the largest proportional emissions reductions globally.
Emerging Economies Turnaround: A key development is the movement of emerging economies into the absolute decoupling group. Nations like Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Jordan, and Mozambique are now growing their economies while cutting CO2 emissions in absolute terms, challenging the notion that climate action hinders development.
Relative Decoupling Giants: Large, developing nations such as China and India are achieving relative decoupling. Their emissions growth has been much slower than their respective GDP expansion, demonstrating significant progress in the decarbonization of their industrial bases.
The collective impact of this widespread progress is evident globally. The growth of annual global CO2 emissions slowed dramatically to just 1.2% since 2015. This is a steep decline from the 18.4% growth recorded in the decade leading up to the Paris Agreement, indicating the global emissions peak may finally be in sight.
Voices on the decoupling trend:
This trend fundamentally challenges the long-held narrative that nations must sacrifice economic prosperity to tackle climate change.
John Lang, the Net Zero Tracker lead at the ECIU and one of the report’s authors, commented on the findings, confirming the structural change. “We’re sometimes told the world can’t cut emissions without cutting growth. The opposite is happening. Decoupling is now the norm, not the exception.”
Lang said that the share of the global economy achieving absolute decoupling is steadily increasing. He said that the world is in a “pre-conditioning stage” ahead of a structural decline in overall global emissions. The acceleration of clean energy investment—now double that of fossil fuels—is providing the foundational momentum for this shift.
Outlook:
The study offers a hopeful perspective on global climate action, underscoring the effectiveness of strong climate policy and clean technology investment. However, the ECIU emphasizes that while the foundations for accelerated absolute emission reductions are in place, even more rapid action is necessary. Global CO2 emissions have not yet peaked. The study concludes that aggressive policy implementation is essential in the coming decade to ensure the structural decline needed to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement.
