Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are now projected to be 12 percent below 2019 levels by 2035, marking a significant milestone in international climate action, according to an updated analysis from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat.
The finding comes from the 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Synthesis Report Update, which compiles the latest climate pledges made under the Paris Agreement. The release of this critical data point coincides with the COP30 climate summit currently underway in Belém, Brazil, where leaders are focusing on implementation and ambition.
Reversal from pre-Paris trajectory:
The projected 12 percent reduction in global GHG emissions (with LULUCF) is a substantial achievement compared to earlier projections. Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global emissions for 2035 were expected to increase by a range of 20 percent to 48 percent.
The Secretary of the UNFCCC, Simon Stiell, noted that the accelerated expansion of commitments confirms a transformative shift in global energy systems.
Scope:
The updated report synthesizes information from 86 new NDCs communicated by 113 Parties to the Paris Agreement and recorded in the NDC registry through November 9, 2025. These collective commitments cover approximately 69 percent of total global GHG emissions from 2019.
Analysis of the 113 parties that submitted new NDCs reveals the range of expected reductions:
• Unconditional Targets: Assuming implementation of only unconditional elements, this group of Parties projects a 10 percent reduction in emissions compared to their 2019 levels, equating to approximately 32.7 Gt CO₂e in 2035.
• Full Implementation: If all conditional elements of the NDCs are fully implemented, the projected reduction for this group deepens to 14 percent below 2019 levels (around 31.4 Gt CO₂e).
The mandate for successive NDCs:
In accordance with Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, each party is required to communicate successive NDCs every five years. The latest update, including new NDCs from 49 parties across the world, demonstrates the continuing effort to enhance climate ambition and accelerate the transition toward a low-carbon economy.
